Gradually bid farewell to extensive development of the wind power industry

In the forthcoming “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Wind Power Development” (hereinafter referred to as “Planning”), besides explicitly setting the target for 100 million kilowatts of wind power grid-connected power installations in 2015, it is also proposed for the first time in 2015 that key provinces The proportion of wind power generation in the district reached more than 10% of the total electricity consumption. The industry generally believes that this figure means that during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the quality of wind power industry development is expected to increase significantly.

Wind power industry is gradually bid farewell to the past extensive growth model, ushering in a new turning point. According to the "China Wind Power Development Report 2012" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") released jointly by Greenpeace and the China Resources Comprehensive Utilization Association Renewable Energy Special Committee on September 18th, the number of companies in the equipment manufacturing field in China's wind power industry has been significantly reduced. “Survival of the fittest” has already had an effect; and the development of downstream wind power projects has also been concentrated in the hands of large companies led by the top five power generation groups, which means that the development of the wind power industry in the future is expected to enter a healthy development track under the unified layout of the “national chess” policy.

According to the “Planning”, the investment demand for wind power development in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” will reach 530 billion yuan. The policy will also formulate an annual fiscal budget and additional electricity price collection standards that will support its development, so as to ensure that the funds supporting the development of wind power are delivered in time and in full.

Manufacturing "Survival of the fittest"

According to the “Report”, it was revealed that there were 29 wind power machine suppliers in China in 2011, which was significantly lower than 38 in 2010 and 43 in 2009. At present, the top 15 wind power machine suppliers have a total market share of 93.2% of the country. According to industry analysis, the newly installed capacity of domestic wind power in the past two years has experienced a sharp decline. The reduced market space has caused some SMEs to speed up their withdrawal from market competition.

According to the China Securities Journal reporter, since last year, nearly 10 domestic companies have withdrawn from the wind power equipment manufacturing business, such as the high-profile announcement of the withdrawal of Kazakhstan air-conditioning (600202), quietly withdraw from the Nantong Hao Shuo wind power equipment company.

In addition, the industry concentration of wind power components is also increasing. The "Report" shows that before 2011, only one blade in the field of domestic wind power component manufacturing once appeared in more than 30 companies. Today, most of these companies are still not mass-produced so far and have made it clear that they will withdraw from the market. At present, the vast majority of market share is still concentrated in the hands of leading manufacturers such as China Composites, Sinoma Technology (002080), and Air China Huiteng.

The industry analysis pointed out that although performance performance including leading wind power manufacturers has been poor since last year, the increase in industrial concentration will accelerate the concentration of market share in large companies, and in the long run, with the installed capacity of wind power in the next few years. Continue to expand steadily will gradually drive the sales of product orders from these companies, which in turn will support the stabilization of their performance.

The project development focused on the “national” prefix “Report” pointed out that the number of companies currently participating in the investment and development of Chinese wind farms has reached more than 60, of which the top 10 wind farm developers had a total installed capacity of 13.43 million kilowatts by the end of 2011, totaling the market. Shares accounted for 76.32% of new installed capacity throughout the year. It is noteworthy that nearly 90% of the wind power projects developed in China in recent years have been invested and constructed by state-owned power companies represented by the five major power generation groups.

As an example of the current leading source of domestic wind power developers, Longyuan Power, the company newly approved 13 wind power projects in the first half of the year, totaling 627.5 megawatts. In the second batch of wind power project development plans of the “12th Five-Year Plan” of the National Energy Administration, the company’s 38 projects with a total capacity of 2.259 million kilowatts were included in the plan, accounting for 13.5% of the total planned capacity, ranking first in all wind power development companies. . At the same time, the cumulative reserve capacity of the Longyuan Power Wind Power Project is 63850 MW, which is close to the installed capacity of the Three Gorges Power Station.

Industry analysis pointed out that since last year, the state has tightened the power of examining and approving wind power projects of local governments. Some small and medium-sized developers that previously used project development to occupy resources and obtain financial subsidies have begun to retreat and replaced by large-scale power companies. Bigger and faster. In fact, this also suits the intention of the policy. “The project development is concentrated in the hands of large enterprises. The state can effectively control the layout of wind power development progress. This will also help increase the project's grid connection rate and reduce the phenomenon of 'rejection of wind'.” Some analysts believe.

According to the “Planning”, the Energy Bureau and other departments will, on the one hand, uniformly organize the construction of large-scale wind power bases, and other projects will advance in an orderly manner according to the annual development plans for wind power. At the same time, the power companies, power grids, and local governments will provide clear annual renewable energy (based on wind power) quotas for power generation. By 2015, wind power generation in key provinces (autonomous regions) focused on development will be used for total power consumption. The proportion of more than 10%.

According to market analysis, if the total electricity consumption in the whole society is set to reach 6.02-6.61 trillion kWh by 2015, and the average on-grid tariff of wind power is 0.6 yuan/kWh, 10% of wind power consumption will mean a record of 3,600 to 3,900 yuan. With a market space of 100 million yuan, the market outlook is very promising.