Since 2014, European and American countries have begun to phase out the 40-60W incandescent bulbs that are the most used in the civilian market, which will set off a wave of global LED lighting replacement. Major manufacturers are optimistic about the development of the LED lighting market in 2014, and expect that the sales growth of replacement lamps will become the focus of the next business growth. In addition, according to the analysis of some customs data, it is expected that the export growth rate of LED lighting products in the fourth quarter of 2013 will be above 80%.
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Some analysts pointed out that general lighting is a truly billion-dollar market. It is expected that the scale of the global commercial and residential lighting market will exceed 100 billion for the first time in 2014. It is expected to reach 160 billion yuan in 2015 and the growth rate in the next two years. At around 60. Under the catalysis of multiple positive factors, Hongli Optoelectronics and LED and other LED concept stocks are expected to come out of a good market.
In 2014, the LED lighting market will be completely opened. According to the 21st Century Business Herald, on January 1, 2014, the United States announced that it will no longer produce and sell 60-watt and 40-watt incandescent lamps. At the same time, Canada has officially banned 75 watts and 100 watts. Tiled incandescent lamp. The EU completely banned the sale of incandescent lamps in 2012. Back to China, the price of LED lights has continued to fall, and has basically fallen to the threshold of civilian use. With the support of national policies, LED lighting will accelerate the replacement of traditional lighting. LED is expected to open twice after the market.
At present, the demand for LED lighting is expected to increase more clearly. The year 2014 is expected to be an outbreak. In the base of 2013, optimism is expected to have more than doubled growth, and the cautious expectation is also doubled. A senior executive of a domestic LED chip manufacturer told reporters.
This estimate is not without basis: on the one hand, the launch of the domestic LED lighting market. In 2012, the penetration rate of LED lighting was less than 3, and in 2013, the penetration rate increased to 6, and the industry has entered a period of rapid growth through the introduction period; on the other hand, the overseas market has also given Chinese enterprises opportunities. The General Administration of Customs estimates that the export growth rate of LED lighting products in the fourth quarter of 2013 will be above 80%. In 2014, the scale of the global commercial and residential lighting market will exceed 100 billion for the first time. In 2015, it is expected to reach 160 billion yuan, and the compound growth rate in the next two years will be around 60.
Our company is very optimistic about the general trend of the LED lighting market to pick up, and has prepared for the upcoming outbreak of demand. Wang An, the director of Sanan Optoelectronics, said.
In this regard, UBS Securities analyst Chen Li believes that compared with other growth industries, the current LED sector valuation is still relatively reasonable, benchmarking PE in 2014 is only 24 times, far lower than other growth stocks. The LED industry has performance support and is expected to grow by 30-50 in 2014, and is expected to achieve high growth in the first quarter. In the future, once the performance confirms the industry's upward trend, it will bring significant excess returns.
The policy is favorable for LED lighting, and relevant standards are intensively released. According to OFweek Semiconductor Lighting Network, in the fourth quarter of 2013, the policies that have a greater impact on the industry mainly come from two aspects. First, major macroeconomic policies provide a good policy environment for the future development of the industry; It is the landing of LED related series standards, which is conducive to market regulation.
1. The macro policy environment is good for the industry. In the fourth quarter, the most important event was the victory of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee on November 11. The meeting proposed to deepen the reform of the science and technology system, clarifying the encouragement of original innovation, establishing a synergistic innovation mechanism for industry, university and research, and strengthening enterprises in technological innovation. The status of the main body, strengthening the use and protection of intellectual property rights, and integrating scientific and technological planning and resources have pointed out the direction for the sustainable development of China's semiconductor lighting strategy emerging industries. In the same period, the Semiconductor Lighting Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Promotion Conference hosted by the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Finance and Economics, and the National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering R&D and Industry Alliance, also held a conference in Beijing. The meeting affirmed and emphasized the promotion of LED products and development. The semiconductor lighting industry is of great significance in promoting energy conservation and emission reduction, promoting economic restructuring and upgrading, and on the basis of soliciting opinions from all parties on energy conservation and emission reduction, research and deploy the next phase of semiconductor lighting application promotion. Locally, Jiangsu Province, as an important gathering place of China's semiconductor lighting industry, researched and drafted Jiangsu's "Several Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Semiconductor Lighting Industry (Draft for Comment)" and held a symposium to discuss it.
On the other hand, the issuance of new shares that have been suspended for more than a year has officially restarted. The four semiconductor lighting companies Abisen, Mulinsen, King Wright, and Crystallizer will have been in progress for several months. Complete the program and go public. It can be expected that more LED high-quality enterprises will join the ranks of listed companies in the future, so as to take advantage of the capital market to accelerate mergers and acquisitions and restructuring, the trend of industry integration.
2. LED lighting related standards are intensively introduced. Years ago, domestic and foreign standards on the standard introduced a number of documents that have a greater impact on the industry. First, the National Standards Committee and other nine departments have formulated and issued the "Strategic Emerging Industry Standardization Development Plan", clarifying that by 2015, it will build about 60 standard complexes, develop more than 600 urgently needed national standards and industry standards, and formulate a number of pushes. Specific measures for the standardization of strategic emerging industries, including semiconductor lighting.
Two national standards related to the semiconductor lighting industry, "Energy efficiency limit values ​​and energy efficiency ratings for non-directional self-ballasted LED lamps for general lighting" (GB30255-2013) and "Architectural Lighting Design Standards" (GB50034-2013) were subsequently introduced, and It will be implemented in the second half of 2014. The two standards play an important role in regulating the market, guiding consumption, accelerating the penetration of LED lighting products, and promoting energy conservation and environmental protection. In particular, the introduction of the former means that China's LED lighting products can also be tested and certified in the near future, and the energy-efficiency label can be attached to their products so that the end users can understand the products simply and intuitively. The energy-saving effect, while promoting LED lighting products can be accepted by users more quickly, also provides a quantitative basis for various preferential subsidy policies.
In December, the National Standards Commission also launched three LED standards development plans, undertaken by the National Key Laboratory of Semiconductor Lighting Joint Innovation, aiming at the development of technical standards, LED intelligent lighting control, application interface specifications and accelerated detection methods. Standardize the market, guide the industry, and promote innovation. At the same time, in the standard integration and mutual recognition mechanism, organizations in the industry have also begun to make useful attempts, such as the National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering R&D and Industry Alliance (CSA) and the Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology on the mutual transformation of optical component technology standards. Cooperation.
Internationally, the Zhaga Alliance announced the LED light engine interface specifications Book7 and Book8. The new LED energy efficiency standards developed by the European Union will also be officially implemented in March 2014. The new LED products for sale are mandatory to be labeled with energy.
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