The national fertilizer market entered an important moment after the spring and summer domestic market shocks: We are faced with an international and domestic market trend of rising prices of phosphate fertilizers, and will also enter the period when production and marketing companies capture business opportunities.
Phosphatic fertilizer industry development status This spring, the high concentration of phosphate and compound fertilizer market is booming. Due to changes in the supply and demand relationship in the international market, the price of DAP has risen sharply since February and reached an all-time high of US$430/ton. At the same time, domestic diammonium phosphate enterprises have signed a large number of export orders. The sharp difference between import prices and domestic market prices has led to a sharp drop in imports and an increase in exports. The domestic supply of DAP was 2.9 million tons throughout the spring and imports were 960,000 tons. By the end of spring, the inventories in the port and the circulation market have decreased significantly year-on-year. The northwestern market has about 50,000 tons of inventories, and other regions have almost no inventory. The port inventory is 167 thousand tons, which is a 36% drop from the same period of last year, which makes the domestic market of diammonium phosphate forecast the oversupply problem. Get better.
The high production and sales volume of high concentration phosphate compound fertilizer market in spring this year was mainly reflected in the decrease in market stocks, steady increase in prices, and a 48% drop in port inventory compared with the same period of last year. There are two main reasons:
First, since February, the prices of high-concentration phosphate and compound fertilizers in the international market have risen sharply, and domestic high-concentration phosphate and compound fertilizer companies have signed a large number of export orders. According to customs data, from January to June this year, China imported 1.898 million tons of high-concentration phosphorus and compound fertilizers, which was 69.11% lower than the 201.24 tons produced in the same period of last year. Exports were 1.3718 million tons, an increase of 230.95% from 414,500 tons in the same period of last year. From the import and export analysis, the domestic supply of high-concentration phosphate compound fertilizer from January to June was a decrease of 1.778 million tons from the previous year.
The second is that raw material prices continue to rise. The price of sulphur rose from 80 U.S. dollars per ton at the end of February to the current 155 U.S. dollars per ton, an increase of 94%. Major raw materials such as coal, oil, phosphate ore, synthetic ammonia, etc. have risen to varying degrees, and production costs have further risen, leading to continued increases in the prices of high-concentration phosphorus compound fertilizers.
Phosphorus fertilizer industry development trend - Rapid expansion of high concentration of phosphate and compound fertilizer companies led to the continuous increase in market supply and demand.
In recent years, due to the influence of international natural gas and oil and other energy factors, the prices of high-concentration phosphate and compound fertilizer at home and abroad have been rapidly increased, which has stimulated the investment progress of domestic phosphate and compound fertilizer companies. The production capacity of domestic diammonium enterprises has been transformed from the original “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€. "The 5.5 million tons have rapidly increased to the current 7.5 million tons. In 2006, the actual domestic production of high-concentration phosphorus compound fertilizer reached 12.105 million tons, basically self-sufficient, but due to the rapid growth of production, the rapid increase in production stimulated the supply and demand relationship in the domestic phosphate fertilizer market, and fierce market competition and price war will not be possible. avoid.
- Imported high-concentration phosphorus compound fertilizers are affected by high-quality, domestically-produced high-concentration phosphate and compound fertilizers with a high quality and low price. The market continues to shrink, but it will not withdraw from the domestic market in the short term.
For a long time, imported fertilizers, especially diammonium phosphate, have been playing a pivotal role in China's phosphate and compound fertilizers market. Its listing prices in the US Gulf, China's seaport shipments, and domestic retail prices of its products are still high levels of domestic phosphorus. An important reference for the pricing of fertilizer companies, but with the rapid growth of domestic high-concentration phosphate and compound fertilizer companies, imports of imported fertilizer decreased year by year, and gradually faded out of the Northeast, Xinjiang and other markets that once dominated. However, due to the profound influence of imported high-concentration phosphate and compound fertilizers on fertilization habits of Chinese farmers, imports of high-concentration phosphate and compound fertilizers will remain in the Chinese market for a long time.
-- Domestic high-concentration phosphate and compound fertilizer companies continue to strengthen their own brand and marketing network construction.
In many years of production and operation, a large number of domestic high-concentration phosphate and compound fertilizer companies, such as Yuntianhua, Hongfu and Six Nations, have gradually won the trust of direct users - farmers, with high quality product quality and services. The high concentration of phosphate and compound fertilizer market gradually occupied the dominant position and constituted a powerful offensive for the import of high concentrations of phosphorus and compound fertilizers.
- The high prices of raw materials at home and abroad have led to a continuous increase in the prices of high-phosphorus compound fertilizers.
In today's global economic integration, due to factors such as rising prices of synthetic ammonia and sulphur in the world's phosphate fertilizer raw materials and rising international freight rates, even if the country adopts a certain regulatory policy, the prices of domestic high-concentration phosphate and compound fertilizer products cannot fall rapidly.
- The steady development of agricultural support policies and agricultural product prices that have been introduced by the country has strongly supported the strong market for high-density phosphate and compound fertilizers.
Due to the important impact of the “three rural†policies, the reduction and exemption of agricultural taxes, and the “building of a new socialist countryside†supporting agriculture policy, and the fact that domestic crop prices have been steadily increasing for a long time, the enthusiasm of farmers for planting land has increased greatly in recent years. Agricultural-related high-concentration phosphate and compound fertilizer industries have also experienced corresponding rapid growth.
-- In the next three years, the output will maintain a certain growth rate. To sum up some points, it can be preliminarily judged that the price of high-concentration phosphorus compound fertilizer will steadily decline in the next three years. By 2008, the prices of diammonium, monoammonium, and compound fertilizers will be It is determined to be between 2300 and 2380 yuan/ton, between 1700 and 1800 yuan/ton, and between 1800 and 2,000 yuan/ton.
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